America is in chaos and may be careening toward a constitutional crisis. The establishment, deep state and main stream media (MSM) are daily alleging serious malfeasance on the part of Trump, claiming he and some of his team colluded with the Russians to win the presidential election. Trump supporters insist it’s a witch-hunt and are standing by their man. This is a bit surprising, as many thoughtful observers had concluded – following the Syria strike – that the deep state and MSM had already managed to bring Trump to heel and that their antics would end accordingly.
We have two main competing theories to account for what’s going on with Trump, the coup theory and the cover-up conspiracy theory. At the outset, let’s stipulate that ‘epicycles‘ can be added to either theory to “explain” all the facts. With that caveat, let’s quickly try and figure out which theory is the better one and what that implies.
According to philosophers of science, good scientific theories exhibit certain epistemic virtues. For example, good theories are internally consistent, cohere with well established background knowledge, unite all available facts, are relatively simple, and explain things in terms of causes and effects. In the case of the human sciences, especially when criminal conduct is being alleged, witness quantity and quality, and plausibly establishing means, motive and opportunity are of paramount importance. Perhaps most importantly, good theories make testable predictions that are later verified by observation.
Of vital importance is the recognition that in criminal matters, the burden of proof rests with the accuser and prosecutor and not the alleged criminal; and the standard of proof is high – beyond a reasonable doubt – although settling for the probable cause standard is arguably appropriate at present. By implication, cover-up conspiracy theorists – who are threatening to impeach and prosecute President Trump – are the ones who must have a good theory. Alternatively, coup theorists – who are defending Trump – are under no obligation to provide a good theory of their own.
The first theory or cover-up conspiracy theory – favored by the deep state and its MSM minions – is a necessarily complicated one which posits that Trump, despite being a Washington neophyte, somehow conspired with the Russians to “hack’ the election – presumably by hacking DNC severs and sharing the information with Wikileaks – and is somehow covering it up. This cover-up conspiracy theory is being pushed by proven liars who obviously loath and fear Trump, with no hard evidence to support it, and who stand to gain or lose everything from its success or failure, respectively. The cover-up conspiracy theorists have yet to establish a plausible motive for what they are accusing Trump of or that he had the means and opportunity to do any of it. Frankly, at this juncture their entire case rests on allegations and sensational headlines stemming from anonymous, unsubstantiated, unaccountable and anti-Trump sources.
Moreover, the cover-up conspiracy theory is constantly shifting ground and fails to follow through on obvious implications. For example, the same MSM that reported that Comey’s FBI had cleared Michael Flynn of “Russian collusion” back on January 24th is now reporting that Trump pressured Comey to stop investigating Flynn a month later on February 14th. And if Comey thought Trump’s alleged pressuring of him was unethical or illegal, why didn’t he immediately report on it as is seemingly required by law (watch video from the 12-13 minute marks)? And why aren’t Obama officials being investigated? After all, Michael Flynn received all manner of security clearances and served as DIA director during the Obama administration. Perhaps he started colluding with the Russians back then? It seems as if smearing Trump is the objective, not getting at the truth.
Similarly, it must be remembered that the cover-up conspiracy theory operation is but the latest in a long line of coordinated MSM operations aimed at delegitimizing and/or removing Trump from the presidency. Such operations included the use of coordinated and anti-trump talking points on things like Hillary won the popular vote, the electoral college showdown, the so-called women’s march, Soros funded commies rioting in cities and on college campuses, etc. The cover-up conspiracy operation is also being run in parallel with other neutralize Trump operations – Trump is mentally unfit to be president, etc. It’s almost as if they’re trowing everything at Trump and waiting for something to stick.
The second theory – favored by Trump and his supporters – is that the deep state and MSM are engineering a soft coup against Trump. This coup theory, while positing a web of interactions between multiple American actors, is less complicated than the cover-up conspiracy theory which must posit a web of interactions between multiple American and Russian actors. The coup theory also coheres with our background knowledge, as the globalists, deep state and MSM are proven liars who have worked together over the last several decades to start wars, discredit various leaders, assassinate opponents, topple governments, rig elections, and engineer hard and soft coups. Moreover, the lust for a new world order provides ample motive for the coup plotters. Anyone with any knowledge of American history knows all of this is true and so no references will be provided.
It seems the coup theory is to be preferred to the cover-up conspiracy theory. But the real advantage of the coup theory over the cover-up conspiracy theory is revealed by the fact that some of its key predictions have been confirmed while the cover-up theory’s main prediction has been dis-confirmed.
Consider four key predictions of the coup theory.
The first prediction is that a deep state exists – a nefarious power behind the throne – which is prepared to use dirty tricks, even against a sitting president. Coup theorists have always maintained the existence of a hidden deep state; MSM shills have always denied it. Indeed, at one time this was a bold prediction that people got pilloried and laughed at by the MSM for making. Nobody with a brain doubts it anymore.
The second prediction is that the deep state would specifically conspire with the MSM to somehow discredit and neutralize or eliminate President Trump. This prediction was made publicly before and immediately after Trump won the election by people ranging from Alex Jones, to Lew Rockwell, to Ron Paul, to Roger Stone, to Paul Craig Roberts, to Joel Skousen, etc. Indeed, many average Trump supporters privately made this prediction. Importantly, this prediction has been confirmed in spades, most stunningly by some creepy and highly revealing on air comments from Senator Chuck Schumer and a tweet by Bill Kristol basically calling for the ousting of Trump and the rule of the deep state. The ongoing efforts by the deep state and MSM to tar President Trump only serves to daily confirm the prediction.
The third prediction, proffered by Trump himself, is that he and his team were under surveillance by Obama administration and deep state operatives and that the raw intelligence was widely shared, unmasked, disseminated and leaked to the MSM to damage Trump. Importantly, this prediction, always mocked and denied by the establishment, has been confirmed time and again. As but one specific example of this, consider the saga of Judge Andrew Napolitano – his initial report on GCHQ mediated intelligence gathering on Trump, his subsequent dismissal from Fox, the deep state and establishment media publicly denying and mocking it it all, and CNN ultimately confirming it and Fox rehiring the judge. Most telling is that the MSM hasn’t followed up on the story – more confirmation that they’re not interested in truth.
The fourth prediction is that someone else or some other group, unassociated with the Trump team, hacked the DNC severs and shared everything with Wikileaks and that the deep state and MSM would make every effort to hide this or “make it go away”. The latest explosive reporting on DNC staffer and murder victim Seth Rich – a story the MSM never investigated seriously – and the scramble to cover it up tends to confirm this prediction (here, here, here , here , here and here).
Four at bats and four hits. That’s not bad. The coup theory looks pretty good. What about the predictions of the cover-up conspiracy theory? How do they stake up against observation?
Well, the cover-up conspiracy theory loudly and confidently posits that Trump and some of his associate are, at the very minimum, guilty of lying, high crimes and misdemeanors and treason, a crime punishable by death under the common law. The theory also confidently posits illegal Russian meddling in an American election, arguably an act of war. Hence, the theory predicts rapid legal action against President Trump and, at the very minimum, formal retaliatory and legal action against Russia. Indeed, the theory predicts the rapid and successful impeachment of President Trump, followed by his prosecution, conviction and punishment. Similar outcomes are predicted for Trump associates. The theory also predicts a proportionate retaliation against Russia, perhaps involving formal legal and/or military action. As of this writing, none of this has happened in action. This tends to dis-confirm the cover-up conspiracy theory or at least fails to confirm it. I guess time will tell.
In closing, the coup theorists are under no obligation to put forward a good theory but the cover-up conspiracy theorists are. Paradoxically, the coup theorists appear to have put forward a better theory than the cover-up theorists. Two obvious implications of this are that Trump should still be considered innocent of wrongdoing, with all that entails, and that the cover-up conspiracy theory should be renamed to “obvious partisan witch-hunt”.